Reiterating My Bearish Position on Netflix


        The biggest news in the stock market last week was revolved around Disney (DIS) and it's unveiling of Disney +. A video streaming platform that will charge subscribers a $6.99/Month fee. I just don't see any scenario that would make me want to invest in Netflix long term.



         For a long time they owned 100% of market share, if you wanted your content streamed- it was through Netflix' platform. But now there are a lot of different options emerging. Apple TV, Facebook watch, Amazon, and the biggest competition, Disney. When four of the five biggest companies emerge in your market- there's nothing you can do.

         If you want to hang on to the fact that Netflix has original content - you can do that. But who has more content than Disney, who has more money to spend than Amazon (7 billion in original content to be exact), and Apple has great minds working on original content, including Spielberg and Oprah. Plus, how good is Netflix' original content? Out of the 1000+ movies/shows they put out so far, less then 150 have at least an 8 out of 10 stars according to IMDB. I mean, how many shows from Netflix can you actually name? I got stuck around 10. Now, how many Disney movies can you make? How many Disney movies have you spent money on to see in theaters? 

         Aside from the massive cut in market share, based on their financials.. they are in trouble. If you took all of their cash and cash equivalents, all their intangible assets and net income for the next year, you still wouldn't pay off their debt.

The indicators all point down for Netflix, the charts don't look good. Membership has plateaued, prices are rising rapidly- they are panicking and trying to raise more money in a frantic pace.

Plus, they have one source of income. What happens when they strike out on a few originals and content from other providers start getting pulled and moved to Apple, Amazon and Disney?

I have been bearish on Netflix for a few years now.

https://www.modernizedinvesting.com/2018/10/why-i-dont-care-about-netflix-beating.html

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Reiterating My Bearish Position on Netflix

        The biggest news in the stock market last week was revolved around Disney (DIS) and it's unveiling of Disney +. A video streami...