Reiterating My Bearish Position on Netflix


        The biggest news in the stock market last week was revolved around Disney (DIS) and it's unveiling of Disney +. A video streaming platform that will charge subscribers a $6.99/Month fee. I just don't see any scenario that would make me want to invest in Netflix long term.



         For a long time they owned 100% of market share, if you wanted your content streamed- it was through Netflix' platform. But now there are a lot of different options emerging. Apple TV, Facebook watch, Amazon, and the biggest competition, Disney. When four of the five biggest companies emerge in your market- there's nothing you can do.

         If you want to hang on to the fact that Netflix has original content - you can do that. But who has more content than Disney, who has more money to spend than Amazon (7 billion in original content to be exact), and Apple has great minds working on original content, including Spielberg and Oprah. Plus, how good is Netflix' original content? Out of the 1000+ movies/shows they put out so far, less then 150 have at least an 8 out of 10 stars according to IMDB. I mean, how many shows from Netflix can you actually name? I got stuck around 10. Now, how many Disney movies can you make? How many Disney movies have you spent money on to see in theaters? 

         Aside from the massive cut in market share, based on their financials.. they are in trouble. If you took all of their cash and cash equivalents, all their intangible assets and net income for the next year, you still wouldn't pay off their debt.

The indicators all point down for Netflix, the charts don't look good. Membership has plateaued, prices are rising rapidly- they are panicking and trying to raise more money in a frantic pace.

Plus, they have one source of income. What happens when they strike out on a few originals and content from other providers start getting pulled and moved to Apple, Amazon and Disney?

I have been bearish on Netflix for a few years now.

https://www.modernizedinvesting.com/2018/10/why-i-dont-care-about-netflix-beating.html

My $25,000 Robinhood Account



       A few days ago i woke up and checked my portfolio- and i realized something. Almost my entire portfolio is made up of stocks that i have bought in the last year. I was lucky enough to sell a lot of my stocks at the right time last year, which gave me a lot of buying power from September-January. It's been a great year so far and i'm already looking to sell some shares of some companies that i own. Here's what i'm looking at in my Robinhood portfolio right now.

Apple (AAPL)

25 shares @ $151/each
Initial investment $3,775
Today's value $4,975
Return 31.79% or $1200

Facebook (FB)

25 shares @ $149/each
initial investment $3,725
Today's value $4,425
% Return 18% or $700

Etsy (ETSY)

100 shares @ $29.50/each
Initial investment $2,950
Today's value $6,800
% Return 130% or $3850

Coca Cola (KO)

50 shares @ $47.50/each
Initial investment $2,375
Today's value $2,332
% Return (1.81%) or -$43

Proctor And Gamble (PG)

15 shares @ $80/each
Initial investment $1,200
Today's value $1,569
% Return 30.75% or $369

Bank of America (BAC)

17 shares @ $26.28/each
Initial investment $446
Today's value $493
% Return 10.5% or $47

I also own small positions in companies such as Wells Fargo (WFC), Whirlpool (WHR) , Verizon (V), General Electric (GE), Ford (F) and Microsoft (MSFT)

Why I'm Finally Buying Shares of General Electric


              Unless you have been living under a rock for the last two years- you probably heard that one of the largest, and most powerful companies in the world has fallen over 60% in a two year span. It hit a low of $6.45 per share. Which is at the point i thought to myself " this might be a pretty good buy ". I watched it for a while and finally pulled the trigger at about $7.38. I have been buying on dips and selling on highs for about three months now, over all- i am bullish long term. But like to secure profits early.


              But why did it fall so hard so fast? Well their first issue was being massively over leveraged. In 2015 they had over 389 billion dollars in debt and just 25 billion in gross income. But luckily for them, they had been paying a $.24 quarterly dividend- which was yielding over 3%. They had the option to cut the dividend- which they did. And that dramatically helped their debt problem, in 2015 they paid over 9.2 billion dollars worth of dividends, in 2018 they just under 4.5 billion. But they still aren't out of the woods yet- they are still underwater a bit. But moving in the right direction. They have more than doubled their cash and cash equivalents since 2015.

               That's not the only reason, they have had declining free cash flow, which is just basically a measure of how much cash a business has after accounting for capital expenditures. Which lead former CEO Jeff Imlet to cut forecasts for 2018- and it got even worse the farther they cut the dividend and they got hit harder after they missed their estimates. But finally- the market is expecting the new free cash flow to increase in 2019 and 2020.


                General Electric is not for everyone- it's a long term investment. I would say plus ten years. I would like to see them increase net income, revenue as a whole, I would need more debt to be paid off to put more money into it.. and I would like to see the dividend be eliminated until this can be done. But I do have faith that they will be prosperous again- I'm just not sure when. I won't go long until these things are accomplished, but I will have fun playing these dips every time a bonehead analyst says something negative.

Why Buy Crypto? We Already Have Something Better



       For those that know me, you know i'm a long term growth investor. I like investing in companies that i understand, companies that are profitable, have good management and financial statements- I don't like penny stocks, speculation or buying a stock based on hype. To me, that's exactly what crypto currency is. There are no financials to back it up, there is no management, they have no business model and are influenced on just hype and speculation.


      With that being said- why would we do something as crazy as changing the entire global economy and making 195 countries change everything they know about money, and teach nearly 8 billion people something they have no idea about. Plus, 40% of the world doesn't have access to the internet- how would those people use their money? How about people that choose not to use it such as elderly that don't want to adapt to new technology. What about the security aspect of it, who is paying to make sure this stuff is not being stolen, and if it is stolen is it refunded?  What about small mom and pop shops that take cash only, how about small things like a gumball machine or parking meters? Well there may already be a solution out there.

     Apple pay. Apple pay makes it easy to make purchases online or in store with just a tap of the phone. It's fast, it's secure and is backed by one of the largest and innovative companies in the world. They are changing the way we see money, without changing the concept of money. And best of all- you don't have to worry about your money dropping 85% in value over a year span. It is widely accepted by all retailers and can easily be converted to cold hard cash if needed (yes there are still a ton of cash only business')

     

Reiterating My Bearish Position on Netflix

        The biggest news in the stock market last week was revolved around Disney (DIS) and it's unveiling of Disney +. A video streami...